If she stays in the race all the way into the Democratic convention, she stands a good chance of clearing John McCain’s path to the White House. In this commentator’s opinion, she is the more electable Democratic candidate, but the math simply isn’t there. She can’t win the nomination, but as long as she stays in, she can keep the crown from Obama, too. It’s true that she will probably win the West Virginia primary handily, but it just isn’t enough to help her. It’s over.

The party is still bitterly divided, a bad sign for whoever emerges from the food fight at the convention, who will only have three months to campaign against McCain. The Arizona senator, meanwhile has been saving up his money and biding his time until an opponent is chosen. The Republican party has had time to get used to rhe idea of McCain representing them - a huge advantage.

Clintons aren’t used to losing, but Clinton needs to get used to the idea. She needs to drop out of the race for the sake of the party. The dream ticket (“Obama-Clinton 2008″) is no longer a possibility with the tension that’s built up between the two candidates, so if she does concede, then she’ll have to wait four years for another shot at an office at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Right now, the Democrats need to pick one candidate, decide on a strategy for defeating John McCain, and focus their efforts on fighting him, not fighting each other. If Clinton stays the course all the way until she gets the official boot in late August, then she might as well be signing the party’s death sentence. There’s no other way for the Democrats to win at this point. Even Howard Dean sees it. Pack up and go home, Senator Clinton. You ran a tough campaign, now shut up before you find yourself doing all the Republicans’ campaigning for them…

Today is Monday, May 12, 2008 – only 253 days away from the next presidential inauguration.

 The first, and most glaring proposed solution is the gas tax holiday spearheaded by Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Their plans would call for a suspension of the 18.4 cent-per-gallon federal gasoline tax over the summer. Sounds like a nice idea, right? Wrong. Does anyone really believe that the oil companies aren’t going to seize this opportunity? With prices down, Americans will by more gas. Big oil stands to make a killing, unhampered by the gas tax, by simply raising prices slightly. The average American stands to save a whopping $30. The second hole in this bucket is the $10 billion gap in federal funding for highway construction and maintenance. How does that help the economy?

No discussion of gas prices is complete without mentioning its profound effect on food prices. Unless you grow all of your own food and raise livestock in your backyard, you food has to be shipped to your local grocery store. This requires gasoline, so rising gas prices equal rising prices on everyday foods, like milk, bread, cheese, etc. The solution is not to let current agriculture policy continue. Every year, countless farmers receive a check in the mail from the federal government – a subsidy in exchange for not farming. The government’s reasoning is that too much competition makes the market price for corn and other produce unstable. The obvious solution, then, is to stop paying out these ridiculous subsidies. Make farmers farm, and competition will do what it’s supposed to do – drive prices down. We can’t do much about high gas prices, but this could go a long way toward lowering the price of food…and who knows, if there’s a big enough surplus, we could even help ease world hunger. Just a side benefit.

We are in a recession, one that may stay with us for a while. If our politicians use some common sense and simple economics, then we can lessen the blow to America. If our politicians continue to indulge in illogical plans that look good on TV, then we can only expect the current crisis to get worse. Finally, we have to remember that recessions are a natural and unavoidable part of a mixed economy. It’s happened before and it will happen again. Relax, watch your money, spend your economic stimulus check on domestic products and services, and the economy will straighten itself out. Pure and simple.

Today is Saturday, May 10, 2008. Just 255 days until the next presidential inauguration.

So, what does this mean for the United States? Well, our government has been a longtime supporter of the Lebanese government, the very people Hezbollah wants to overthrow, so naturally, Lebanon is calling on America to support them. A representative of the State Department said that we plan to provide “unswerving support” for Lebanon. The question now is, what does “unswerving support” mean? Financial aid? Military? What is the Bush administration prepared to do?

It is worth noting here that Jimmy Carter recently met with Hezbollah leaders, who indicated that they would be willing to talk with the Lebanese government. The world denounced the former president’s efforts, and America scoffed the loudest. What might’ve happened if the White House had backed Carter? What if someone, anyone, had taken the idea of an extremist group enter peaceful negotiations seriously? It’s possible, if a bit unlikely, that this week’s violence could have been avoided.

Alright, very unlikely, but think about it. A few years ago, President Bush announced that the United States does not negotiate with terrorists. It’s true that we can’t afford to go easy on genocidal maniacs, but doesn’t common sense tell us that the very people we should be trying to negotiate with are the ones pointing the guns at us? I’d like to know who GW thinks we should negotiate with, if not the aggressors of the current conflicts in the Middle East.

I realize that this is a very sensitive issue, but we should consider how far violence has gotten us over the last seven years. Eye-for-an-eye foreign policy has brought us nothing but more bloodshed. The time has come for serious talks. Reaching a peaceful settlement with Hezbollah is the first step, in my opinion, to ending the cycle of violence in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world. How this president and next handle these realities will shape the future course of the 21st century. How will we as Americans handle these frightening times? How will we answer?

Today is Saturday, May 10, 2008 – 255 days until the next President of the United States takes office.

It’s surprising that this is happening. Almost as surprising as seeing a woman and a black man being serious contenders for the highest office in the land. Not too long ago, it looked like the Democrats had this election in the bag. The war in Iraq was unpopular and the economy was looking worse with each passing week, all points that traditionally play in the Democrats’ favor. However, they have been unable to use this advantage.

Instead of unifying, rallying under their anti-war, economic stimulus platform and waltzing into the White House, they are tied up in a seemingly endless feud in their own party. Instead of attacking John McCain, the candidates are busy tearing each other to pieces.

It’s true that Clinton’s popularity is slipping in favor of Obama, but her delegate count is secure, for now. It seems, in this commentator’s opinion that Clinton should back out now before it’s too late for her party. Many of her colleagues agree and are calling for her to withdraw from the race. Her hands are stained with political blood now, but she is too stubborn to get out of the way and do what’s right for the Democratic Party. It seems that the Clintons aren’t used to defeat.

In any case, the Democratic Party is in danger of being torn clean in half, with an astonishing number of Obama supporters claiming that they’d rather vote Republican than vote for Clinton and vice versa. This division could prove fatal for the party unless the less popular candidate gets out now, so that everyone can get used to the nominee.

If it drags on past the Pennsylvania primary, then the Democrats may repeat their crash-and-burn routine which has been so entertaining over the past eight years, with a half-crazed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama fighting for control and steering the party into the ground.

For Democrats, this is a nightmare scenario, one that they are all too familiar with. For the Republicans, they’re no doubt rolling in the aisle of the Capital Building and making plans for John McCain’s inauguration celebration. All he has to do is wait the Democrats out while he silently gathers supporters from their own ranks and lets Clinton and Obama do all his campaigning for him. He’s in a strong position, but anything can happen. It’s been a wild, unpredictable election year so far, and it’s a long way to November 4th.

Al Gore, anyone?

Today is Monday, March 31, 2008 – 295 days until the next President of the United States is sworn into office.

According to recent polls, the vote between Senator John McCain and any Democratic candidate would be very close, close enough for a third candidate to sway the election. Now, seriously, Nader has no chance in hell of winning, but he is in a position to determine effectively who be the next president of the United States.

All he needs to do is siphon a small number of votes from one candidate or another to ensure the other’s victory. Indeed, he was blamed for doing just that in 2000 and costing Al Gore the election. One has to consider the possibility that he’s doing it just to mess with the election (Of course, in actuality, he probably believes that the fifth time is a charm). But, the real question is, can he cause the same havoc again?

All indications say that he really can be the determining factor this year. As I and many others have pointed out, a lot of voters, sick of partisan cat-fights, have turned their backs on the two traditional parties and registered independent. If these voters don’t see what they want to see by November, they may well cast their ballot for Ralph Nader. The independents are the key to all the candidates. If the Republicans can court their (and my) support, then they can sweep into the White House. If the Democrats get independents on their side, then they win. If, instead, they vote for Nader, the outcome is unknown.

So, while Ralph Nader can not win in 2008, except by nothing less than a revolution in American thinking or an act of God (or both), he can still determine whether a Republican or a Democrat becomes the 44th president of the United States. So, this year’s election takes yet another twist.

Today is Monday, February 25, 2008 – 330 days until the next presidential inauguration.

Long before the oil wells go dry, we will see prices skyrocket, possibly up to $8.00 a gallon or more for gasoline in the United States, or more. Just this alone is enough to place serious economic strains on this country. First of all, transportation costs will rise catastrophically. The cost of shipping across the country from California to the Atlantic Seaboard will push the price the food up and up and up. Which do you want this month: a roof over your head or a crate of oranges? It seems far-fetched now, but you may not be laughing in twenty years.

As high prices for essential items like food, clothing, and heating start to take progressively bigger bites out of America’s wallet, the economy, entirely dependent on the drilling, importing, refining, and selling of oil, will crumble. It will be the Great Depression for the 21st century, a global financial, political, and social meltdown. After that, war over what’s left of the oil is the next logical step.

So, is this really a vision of our future in the next few decades, or is this just a retelling of the many end-of-the world scenarios we’ve heard over the years? I’m inclined to believe that it’s a possibility. There is already speculation that Saudi Arabia has reached peak oil production, and respected experts predict the rest of the world will follow suit sometime between now and 2040. If oil production can’t keep up with demand (a daunting undertaking with China and India using more and more oil daily), then the economic recession which I’ve outlined is virtually guaranteed.

What now? We can sit here and postulate on the horrors of a post-petroleum world as long as we want, but the window of opportunity to act is rapidly closing. We need quick, decisive action. We need active development of alternative sources of energy, end of story. If we want to drive and heat our homes in thirty years, we must get on the ball now.

Of course, this raises the question of how to do this. Simple: vote for someone who will pledge to get this moving, or write to your senator, or become CEO of ExxonMobil. I’m not much of an activist or a protester, but there’s too much at stake here to sit back.  don’t want to see the world and my country plunge into chaos. You don’t have to believe that the oil is going to run out. Just think about it. That’s the first step.

Today is Friday, February 22, 2008. The next president takes office in 333 days.

McCain has been accused of having close relations with a lobbyist, not exactly something  that’s beneficial to his campaign. Luckily for the Arizona senator, this scandal has come so late in the race, that there’s very little it can do to stop his momentum. The miracle that Huckabee has been waiting for may not be that much of a push. Sure, he may win a few states, but trailing McCain by more than 700 delegates, the Republican race is over. Whether this scandal may hurt McCain’s chances to beat the Democratic nominee has yet to be seen.

Speaking of the Democrats, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are at this moment having a debate in Austin. The differences when compared to the last debate are fascinating. The civility has given way to tension and sometimes outright attacks. They even went so far as to ignore a question from the panel to continue their fruitless debate over who has the better health care solution. So far, no new information about the candidates’ positions on the hot-button issues has come forward. However, the senators’  true colors are showing. Clinton is clearly desperate. She’s been losing primaries and she is quick to point out her opponent’s flaws. Obama is far more subtle and composed, but even he is not above trading a few barbs, even if he is making a conscious effort to avoid it. Even so, they are  preferring to attack John McCain.

Now, neither of these events are going to shake the base of the parties, but the effect on the independent voters will be more pronounced. Will the accusations leveled at McCain cause the independents to vote Democratic, or will the Democrats’ childish finger-pointing about speech plagiarism sway them toward the Republicans, or will there be no reaction at all. I wish I could say.

Today is Thursday, February 21, 2008, 334 days away from inauguration day 2009.

For the Democrats, the race was still neck-and-neck, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton still in a dead-even tie for delegates. That alone would’ve made this an historic one, but throw in the fact that the two candidates are a woman and a black man, and now you’ve got great television. In any case, I wasn’t too keen on placing my bets one way or another, but now I’d say that it looks like it’s leaning toward Obama as the Democratic nominee, but only by the skin of his teeth. (Of course, now that I said that, I’m going to look like an idiot in three weeks, but no matter.)

Now, as a white male whose best friends are black, don’t think I’m throwing in my lot with Obama because I’m sexist. Far from it. Indeed, after close inspection of both their websites, I have yet to find a major difference in Clinton and Obama’s policies. So, what it comes down to is personality. Voting based on who you like better as a person is a horrible way to make such a big decision, but unfortunately, that’s what it has come to in the Democratic primaries. In that respect, Obama is clearly more electable. People genuinely like him better than Clinton, even if he is a bit vague and lacking in experience.

So, will popularity alone clinch the nomination for Obama? Perhaps, but the party must first consider how well he will fare against the Republican shoe-in for the nomination, McCain. McCain, too is a popular figure and he has already proved that he can capture the moderate base of his own party, but more on McCain in a later blog entry. For now, we must be content with the possibility that we won’t know until the Democratic Convention who the nominee will be.

So, here we are at the end of February in an election year and the tension is almost more than Keith Olberman and Bill O’Reilly can stand, much less fill their respective shows with. I’m still waiting and watching, trying to find the best person to vote for, and to be honest, I’m still not sure. As a registered Independent, I’m in a unique position. Republican or Democrat? I’ll have to get back to you on that one…

Today is Tuesday, February 19, 2008 – 336 days until the next President of the United States is sworn into office.

The Irish were treated with disdain and hatred by Americans not only because of their religion, but because they were supposedly taking jobs away from Americans. After the Civil War, with the flow of Irish immigrants continuing, African Americans complained that the Irish were stealing their jobs, because the immigrants were cheaper and more expendable than the former slaves.

In the 1920s, the quota system limited the number of immigrants who could enter the U.S. to the number of people from that country who had been there in 1910, and later, in 1890. Isolationism in the face of a devastating war stoked the fires of discrimination and denied entry to the U.S. to those people who weren’t “like us.” Sound familiar?

Today, America faces a similar problem. Countless Hispanic immigrants have crossed the border, both legally and illegally. Hispanic immigrants are seemingly everywhere, and as would be expected, with them has come a new wave of racism. Perhaps part of the blame lies in the xenophobia stirred up by the World Trade Center Attacks. We no longer trust anyone different. Anyone with a tan is automatically labeled a potential terrorist in the back of our minds.

Of course, no one will admit to it. The most common excuse used to justify our blatant racism against Hispanics is that they’re “stealing our jobs.” So, look around. Do you know anyone who has lost their job to an immigrant? If they have, I can probably guarantee that they lost their job not because the Hispanic worker was willing to accept lower wages, but because they were honestly better qualified for the position. Most of us, though, have to admit that the we see the majority of immigrants working long hours in the sun during the summer picking oranges and lettuce, etc. Do you want to work out in the field all day for minimum wage? Did that evil immigrant steal that great job from you?

The fact is, immigrants really are people just like the average American, only having the misfortune to be born in Cuidad Juárez instead of El Paso. The Declaration of Independence says that all men are created equal and entitled to inalienable rights, such as life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Now, can we reasonably argue that when it says that everyone is created equal, it really just applies to white, middle class Americans who have 2.5 children and a white picket fence around their suburban home? Can we say that inalienable rights don’t apply to the illegal aliens? Can you stand at the outskirts of Nogales with a bullhorn and yell at a poor family with six children and no way to make ends meet that the American Dream is for citizens only and turn them over to Mexico’s corrupt government knowing full well that their children can’t afford to go to the hospital if they get sick? Can we in good conscience deny these people the happiness that can be found aplenty within our borders?

This is a nation built by immigrants. Members of my family crossed the Atlantic with the rest of the desperate Irish immigrants so that I could have a fighting chance at a good life. Are we going to round up millions of hard workers supporting their families and ship them back to Mexico? Where would our country be without the sacrifices of immigrants?

Part of the inscription on the Statue of Liberty in New York City says,
“Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me…”
This is what these United States stand for. Our shores are supposed to be a safe haven for the poor and the oppressed. How far have we fallen from our grand ideals…

Today is Monday, November 19, 2007 – 428 days away from the next presidential election.

Now, I’m not saying that Saddam Hussein wasn’t a dangerous, homicidal dictator, but so far, in my mind, the bad greatly outweighs the good. Now isn’t the time for us to debate whether going to war in the first place was the right decision. The past is in the past, but the future is dependent on the choices that are made right now.

First, the war is overstretching our military forces. We’re fighting in every corner of Iraq and in Afghanistan. That’s was our first mistake. History as shown us that it is impossible to win a two-front war. The Nazis lost because they tried to take on the Allies and the Russians at the same time. Dividing up your forces is foolish if you plan on winning.

Second, the cost of war is a drag on our economy. This is not like WWII where the war pulled America out of the Great Depression. This time the war is just siphoning funding from other things, like education and healthcare, two glaring problems in need of our attention today that are being ignored.

Finally, we must realize that we are fighting the first of a new breed of warfare, one in which the enemy is invisible, masquerading as civilians, as our own neighbors until they strike. They don’t come from any one country. It’s not as easy as bombing a certain military installation. We are also trying to fight a powerful, small minority who believe in a powerful idea. You can’t fight ideas successfully, if for no other reason that the more of its defenders you cut down, the more rise to take their place with twice the conviction.

I’m not saying that we should roll over and give up. I’m not saying that we should pack up and leave tomorrow morning (which is in itself a ridiculous notion). All I’m saying is that we have to look at the situation as a whole and realize that we’re digging ourselves a hole which will be difficult to get out of. Congress needs to wake up and see that if some major changes in foreign policy aren’t made immediately – including but not limited to enlisting the help of Syria and Iran through diplomacy to help stabilize Iraq – then we will be passing this war on to our children and our grandchildren. We can’t ignore terrorism, but we also can’t ignore the needs of America; of children, the poor and the elderly. We need to strike a balance between guns and butter, between life and death. If our policy-makers can figure that out, then we can still avoid the black mark of history’s judgement.

This is Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 429 days away from the next presidential inauguration.